About Swipe1 Sports: Our Market-Probability Methodology

Swipe1 Sports is the editorial arm of Swipe1 2026 — the sports-first prediction market app. Every odds board, tracker, and projection on this site is built by the team behind the platform, and we say that in the first paragraph on purpose: you deserve to know whose numbers you're reading. This page explains exactly how those numbers are made, what we will and won't publish, and how to hold us to it.

Our Methodology: Market-Implied Probabilities

Every probability on this site starts from the same place: prices set by people risking real money. A prediction-market contract trading at 62¢ is a 62% consensus; a sportsbook line converts to an implied probability the same way (once you know the margin is baked in — we tell you when it is). We compile these from public sportsbook boards and prediction markets at the time stamped on each page, and we present them as what they are: the market's collective view, not our invention.

Why markets and not models or pundits? Calibration. Over large samples, outcomes priced at 70% happen about 70% of the time — a property no individual expert or single model reliably offers, because markets aggregate every public and private read into one number that people are paid to correct. When we quote 56.5% on a US Open winner, that number has skin in it.

What we add on top is clearly labeled. Each sport page carries at most one "Swipe1 Sports projection" — our own editorial call on where we think the market price is wrong. These are opinions, marked as opinions, and graded in public: every projection ends with when we'll grade it, and our hits and misses stay on the page. A prediction company that hides its own predictions' record wouldn't be much of one.

What we will not publish: invented numbers dressed as live data, "live tracker" promises we don't operate, or odds without a date on them. Every page carries a last updated stamp; pages are dated editorial snapshots refreshed around each sport's key moments, and if a number has moved since our stamp, the stamp is your warning.

Editorial Standards

Three rules govern everything here. Disclosure first: this site is published by a platform that competes in the category it covers — so when we compare Swipe1 to Polymarket or Kalshi, we do it in the first person, we credit rivals where they're better (they sometimes are), and we never dress our comparison up as neutral review. Sources or silence: every figure is compiled from named public markets and reporting at the stamped date; anything we can't verify gets cut, not guessed. Corrections in the open: when we get a number or a call wrong, we fix it on the page and say so — spotted one first? The corrections inbox routes straight to us.

We also care how you use this. Markets are probabilities, not certainties; every projection we grade includes losses. Trade with money you can afford to risk, treat this site as information rather than instruction, and if the fun ever stops being fun, the contact page lists support resources — using them is the sharpest move on this whole site.

The Swipe1 Platform

The platform this site is built on turns every one of these markets into something you can act on with one gesture: swipe right on Yes, left on No, up to skip — with the full market underneath every card (price chart, volume, comments, top holders, live trade activity). Fifty percent of platform fees flow back into the ecosystem, points seasons feed the points-to-airdrop program, and the whole thing exists because we think expressing a view on sports should be as fast as having one. The pitch ends there — the homepage makes it properly, and the product makes it best.

Contact & Corrections

Data correction, methodology question, or anything else: contact us. Corrections to published numbers are our fastest queue.