MLB Awards Odds 2026: MVP, Cy Young & Rookie of the Year
Consensus odds compiled from sportsbooks and prediction markets. Last updated: July 24, 2026 — the All-Star break, when award races take their true shape.
The 2026 award races at the break, in one line each: Shohei Ohtani has turned the NL MVP into a formality (-1000), Yordan Álvarez has seized the AL MVP lead (-165) with Aaron Judge on the injured list, Jacob Misiorowski is running away with the NL Cy Young on historic numbers, and the AL Cy Young is the one genuinely open race on the board. The details — and where we think the market is wrong — below.
AL MVP Odds
| Player | Team | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Álvarez | Astros | -165 | ~62% |
| Junior Caminero | Rays | +450 | ~18% (from 20/1 two weeks ago) |
| Ben Rice | Yankees | ~+1200 | ~8% |
| Byron Buxton | Twins | longshot | 25 HR in 68 games |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Royals | drifting | knee injury clouds the second half |
The race changed on May 31, when Judge hit the IL. Álvarez has owned it since: a .327 average with an AL-leading homer count in a comeback season after missing 114 games last year. The mover is Caminero, whose price collapsed from 20/1 to +450 in two weeks — the market chasing a genuine surge. Rice is doing the best Judge impression in the Bronx (.607 slugging, second in MLB).
NL MVP Odds
| Player | Team | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Dodgers | -1000 | ~91% |
| The Field (DraftKings "vs Field" market) | +650 | ~13% | |
| James Wood | Nationals | longshot | MLB-leading 81 runs, 24 HR |
| Kyle Schwarber | Phillies | fading | one HR in his last 13 games |
When a book opens an "Ohtani vs the Field" market because the individual odds have become pointless, the race is over as a prediction question. What's left is a two-scenario bet: injury, or the exotic possibility that Ohtani's mound dominance (a sub-1.50 ERA before two rough starts) splits voters toward giving him the Cy Young instead. Wood's season deserves its own sentence: 81 runs leads all of baseball by nearly twenty.
Cy Young Odds
AL Cy Young — the open race
| Pitcher | Team | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | Yankees | +120 | ~45% (was odds-on at -115) |
| Dylan Cease | Blue Jays | +145 | ~41% — the All-Star Game starter |
| Jacob deGrom | Rangers | ~+480 | ~17% |
| Gavin Williams | Guardians | ~+750 | tied for MLB wins lead |
| Tarik Skubal | Tigers | +6000 | the three-peat is on life support (was +3500) |
This is the board to watch in the second half: the favorite just surrendered odds-on status, the chaser starts the All-Star Game, and the two-time defending winner has drifted to 60/1. Races this fluid are where award markets pay.
NL Cy Young — the runaway
Jacob Misiorowski enters the break as the only pitcher in baseball with a sub-2.00 ERA — leading MLB in ERA (1.45), WHIP (0.75), and strikeouts (138), while throwing the hardest tracked pitches in the sport's recorded history (a 105.5 mph fastball among them). Behind him: Chase Burns (9-1, an All-Star within two years of being drafted — only the sixth pitcher ever), veteran Chris Sale, and a faded Cristopher Sánchez. Short of injury, this race is about second place.
two calls. In the AL Cy Young, take Cease at +145 over Schlittler at +120 — Schlittler's underlying numbers are real but the workload pattern favors Cease's durability, and near coin-flip prices the All-Star starter with the deeper track record is the right side. In the AL MVP, Álvarez at -165 (~62%) is slightly generous to the field: Caminero's surge is real but Tampa Bay's lineup context caps his counting stats, and a healthy Álvarez second half makes this a -300 race by September. Both calls graded publicly in November.
Rookie of the Year
The AL race entered the season headlined by Munetaka Murakami, the NPB slugging star getting everyday at-bats with the White Sox; the NL field remains the more open of the two. Full odds boards for both leagues land here in our next refresh, when the post-break call-up picture settles the races' true shapes.
The Three Awards, in Brief
MVP — the Most Valuable Player award, given in each league since 1931, voted by the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA); the sport's top individual honor. Cy Young — the best-pitcher award in each league, created in 1956 in honor of Cy Young after his death; Don Newcombe was its first winner, and it's judged on ERA, strikeouts, wins, and increasingly the full analytical picture. Rookie of the Year — awarded in each league since 1947 and officially named the Jackie Robinson Award, after its historic first winner. All three are BBWAA votes with ballots submitted before the postseason — regular seasons win these trophies.
World Series Odds
The team futures layer expands here in September when the postseason picture sharpens — the award races above are the summer story; October is its own market.
FAQ
Who is favored for AL and NL MVP?
As of the All-Star break: Yordan Álvarez (-165, ~62%) in the American League, and Shohei Ohtani in the National League at a prohibitive -1000 — so prohibitive that books now offer an "Ohtani vs the Field" market instead.
What is implied probability in awards odds?
The odds translated into a percentage chance: -165 implies roughly 62%, +450 roughly 18%. Prediction-market prices skip the translation entirely — a 62¢ contract just is a 62% consensus. Full mechanics in our methodology.
When are the MLB awards announced?
November, in the weeks after the World Series — Rookie of the Year first, then Cy Young, then MVP.
Who votes for MLB MVP and Cy Young?
The Baseball Writers' Association of America — two writers per league city, with ballots submitted before the postseason begins. That detail matters for trading these markets: October heroics don't count, so the races effectively settle in game 162, not at the ceremony.
Trade MLB Award Markets on Swipe1
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