MLB Awards Odds 2026: MVP, Cy Young & Rookie of the Year
Consensus odds compiled from sportsbooks and prediction markets. Last updated: August 18, 2026 — mid-way through the stretch run.
The 2026 award races have swapped their shapes since the break: the race we called a formality is now the board's closest, and the race that was close is now the closest thing to a coronation. Pete Crow-Armstrong has dragged NL MVP into a genuine coin flip with Shohei Ohtani since Ohtani stopped pitching in early July; Yordan Álvarez has turned AL MVP into a near-lock (-1500) with Aaron Judge still sidelined; Jacob Misiorowski survived an injury scare and a rare loss to remain the heavy NL Cy Young favorite; and the AL Cy Young is still the genuinely open race, just with the lead changing hands again. The details — and where we think the market is wrong — below.
AL MVP Odds
| Player | Team | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Álvarez | Astros | -1500 | ~94% (from -165 at the break) |
| Junior Caminero | Rays | +700 | ~13% |
| Ben Rice | Yankees | ~+2700 | ~4% |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Royals | ~+6500 | faded further after the knee issue |
Álvarez has simply kept producing: he leads the AL in average (.329), homers (35), RBIs (85), OBP (.442), slugging (.640), OPS (1.083), and WAR (5.5) — a 202 OPS+ means he's producing at double the league-average rate. Judge's rib stress fracture (10-day IL since June 5) has kept him out deep into the season, closing his window entirely. Caminero remains the only name with a real, if distant, case: 32 homers, 70 RBIs, a .926 OPS.
NL MVP Odds
| Player | Team | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Dodgers | ~+100 | ~51% (from -1000 at the break) |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Cubs | ~+105 | ~50% (from a distant field price in July) |
This is the swing of the season: the race a sportsbook had closed out with an "Ohtani vs the Field" market a month ago is now a true coin flip. The cause is specific — Ohtani hasn't pitched since July 3 (knee inflammation), freezing the two-way case that made him a lock, while Crow-Armstrong has kept producing in center field for a Cubs team playing meaningful September baseball. Ohtani is still hitting at an MVP level in isolation (.292/.393/.544, 27 HR, 74 RBI, .937 OPS through 111 games) — this is a case of the market's margin collapsing, not his production. The historical stake: a fourth straight Ohtani MVP would tie Barry Bonds' record (2001–2004).
Cy Young Odds
AL Cy Young — still the open race
| Pitcher | Team | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Blue Jays | +110 | ~48% — first AL pitcher to 200 strikeouts |
| Cam Schlittler | Yankees | -130 | ~57% but trending down — failed to reach the 5th in 2 of his last 4 starts |
| Sonny Gray | Cardinals | +2800 | the only other name still in the conversation |
This is still the board to watch: the lead has changed hands multiple times since the break, with Schlittler's second-half workload dip (3.25 ERA over his last five starts) opening the door for Cease's surge. Races this fluid are where award markets pay.
NL Cy Young — the runaway, mostly intact
Jacob Misiorowski is still the heaviest favorite on the board (-600, ~86%) despite a mid-July arm-fatigue scare and his first loss in a month in early August — a loss where he allowed just 2 runs over 7 innings with 10 strikeouts, which tells you how far ahead he still is. Behind him: veteran Chris Sale, with the rest of the field never seriously threatening. Short of a real injury, this race remains about second place.
Updating both calls. AL Cy Young: we took Cease over Schlittler at +145/+120, and the market has since moved our way — Cease is now the (narrow) value case again as Schlittler's workload shows real cracks; still live, not yet graded. AL MVP: we said Álvarez at -165 was slightly generous to the field and would tighten to -300 by September — the market moved much further than we called it, to -1500, which means we were directionally right but badly underpriced how completely Álvarez would take over. Both calls graded publicly in November.
Rookie of the Year
AL: Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle is the favorite at -525 (~84%), with Munetaka Murakami — the NPB slugging star getting everyday at-bats with the White Sox — the only real challenger at +475. The two have traded the lead multiple times this season, most recently after Murakami returned in mid-July from injury. NL: Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt leads at -145, with the Reds' Sal Stewart (+115) closing the gap on a strong July (7 home runs, .510 slugging). Wetherholt's edge is largely defensive — two errors at second base all season — while Stewart leads all NL rookies in RBIs and is tied for the lead in home runs.
The Three Awards, in Brief
MVP — the Most Valuable Player award, given in each league since 1931, voted by the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA); the sport's top individual honor. Cy Young — the best-pitcher award in each league, created in 1956 in honor of Cy Young after his death; Don Newcombe was its first winner, and it's judged on ERA, strikeouts, wins, and increasingly the full analytical picture. Rookie of the Year — awarded in each league since 1947 and officially named the Jackie Robinson Award, after its historic first winner. All three are BBWAA votes with ballots submitted before the postseason — regular seasons win these trophies.
World Series Odds
The team futures layer expands here in September when the postseason picture sharpens — the award races above are the summer story; October is its own market.
FAQ
Who is favored for AL and NL MVP?
As of mid-August: Yordan Álvarez (-1500, ~94%) has turned the American League race into a coronation. The National League is the opposite story — Shohei Ohtani's break-time -1000 "formality" has collapsed into a near coin flip with Pete Crow-Armstrong (roughly 51-52% each) since Ohtani stopped pitching in early July.
What is implied probability in awards odds?
The odds translated into a percentage chance: -165 implies roughly 62%, +450 roughly 18%. Prediction-market prices skip the translation entirely — a 62¢ contract just is a 62% consensus. Full mechanics in our methodology.
When are the MLB awards announced?
November, in the weeks after the World Series — Rookie of the Year first, then Cy Young, then MVP.
Who votes for MLB MVP and Cy Young?
The Baseball Writers' Association of America — two writers per league city, with ballots submitted before the postseason begins. That detail matters for trading these markets: October heroics don't count, so the races effectively settle in game 162, not at the ceremony.
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