Heisman Trophy Odds 2026: Favorites, Trends & Our Calls
Consensus odds compiled from sportsbooks and prediction markets. Last updated: July 24, 2026 — seven weeks to kickoff.
Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr opens as the 2026 Heisman favorite at +700 (an implied ~12.5%), a nose ahead of Texas' Arch Manning at +750. Hold both numbers loosely: the single most reliable fact in this market is that the preseason favorite almost never wins. The last one to do it was Marcus Mariota in 2014 — and last season's winner, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, was a +6000 afterthought in the preseason. This page tracks the board, the history that should shape how you read it, and our own calls, updated through the season.
Current Heisman Odds (as of July 15, 2026)
| Candidate | School | Pos | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Carr | Notre Dame | QB | +700 | ~12.5% |
| Arch Manning | Texas | QB | +750 | ~11.8% |
| Trinidad Chambliss | Ole Miss | QB | +1100 | ~8.3% |
| Julian Sayin | Ohio State | QB | +1100 | ~8.3% |
| Darian Mensah | Miami | QB | +1100 | ~8.3% |
| Dante Moore | Oregon | QB | +1200 | ~7.7% |
| Sam Leavitt | LSU | QB | +1600 | ~5.9% |
| Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State | WR | ~+2000 | ~4.8% |
| Marcel Reed | Texas A&M | QB | +2500 | ~3.8% |
| Byrum Brown | Auburn | QB | +3500 | ~2.8% |
Implied probabilities are straight conversions from consensus prices and include the books' margin. Notice the shape of this board: no one above 13%. The market itself is telling you it has no idea — which is historically the correct opinion in July.
Top Heisman Candidates Breakdown
CJ Carr — Notre Dame
Efficient first season as the starter (26 touchdowns against 7 interceptions) behind an elite defense that capped his volume. The favorite tag is partly a bet on increased usage in 2026. The catch, and it's real: Notre Dame's schedule offers at most two projected top-25 opponents — few stages to wow voters. Blowout stats against soft schedules have lost this award before.
Arch Manning — Texas
The name drives the conversation; the tape is finally starting to justify it. After a bumpy start to 2025, Manning finished with roughly 3,563 total yards and 36 touchdowns, and returns to the most talented offense of his career. The market is pricing a leap. History's warning: he opened as the 2025 favorite too, and was out of the race by October.
Trinidad Chambliss — Ole Miss
Last season's revelation — took over in Week 3, piled up over 4,400 total yards and 30-plus touchdowns, and dragged Ole Miss to its first College Football Playoff, reaching the semifinals. A dual-threat profile with maximum usage is exactly the statistical shape this award rewards.
Julian Sayin — Ohio State
The only returning Heisman finalist on the board, and briefly the outright favorite in November 2025 after leading the nation in passing yards (4,379) with 34 touchdowns. A tougher 2026 schedule may paradoxically help: more competitive games mean more fourth-quarter throwing.
The field worth watching
Darian Mensah brings a 34-touchdown season to Miami; Dante Moore kept Oregon's QB assembly line running (3,565 yards, 32 TDs); Sam Leavitt follows the Jayden Daniels path from Arizona State to LSU; and Jeremiah Smith is the one non-QB the market respects — a two-time All-American who would need a historic year and a QB vacuum.
Why the Preseason Favorite Rarely Wins
Three structural reasons. First, exposure: the favorite is priced on last year's tape plus hype, and hype has nowhere to go but down at the first interception. Second, the schedule lottery: one bad primetime loss damages a Heisman narrative more than three quiet wins repair it. Third, voter psychology: the award chases the season's story, and the favorite winning is the one outcome with no arc.
The receipts, from the last decade of this market: only one of the last ten preseason favorites won. Mendoza won it at +6000 last year. Joe Burrow wasn't even on most boards before winning in 2019 (around +10000 when listed). Lamar Jackson: +10000. Meanwhile the trends that DO hold: quarterbacks have won 16 of the last 20; five of the last six winning QBs were transfers; and every winner since 1988 played on a team that won at least nine games.
fade both co-favorites at these prices — Carr's schedule and Manning's expectation load are both classic favorite traps. Our call is Julian Sayin at +1100 as the best blend of proven elite production, team quality, and stage access, with Chambliss as the live dark horse if Ole Miss returns to the Playoff. And per the transfer trend, the actual winner may not be on this board yet — Mendoza wasn't. We'll grade this call publicly in December.
What Is the Heisman Trophy?
The Heisman Trophy is college football's most prestigious individual award, presented annually since 1935 to the sport's most outstanding player. Named after coach John Heisman, it is voted on by a large panel of sports media members plus every living former winner, and presented in New York in mid-December. Quarterbacks dominate the modern award — 16 of the last 20 winners — and it has become a launchpad: five winners since 2013 went on to be the No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick.
College Football Playoff Odds
The team race that feeds the individual one — quarterbacks on Playoff teams win Heismans — and the same futures logic runs on our college basketball futures board once hoops season tips off. Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Ole Miss headline the CFP futures conversation entering fall camp, with defending champion Indiana out to prove lightning strikes twice. (Full CFP odds board lands here with our first in-season update after Week 1, when the numbers mean something.)
FAQ
Who is favored to win the Heisman in 2026?
CJ Carr (Notre Dame) at +700 as of July 15, 2026, barely ahead of Arch Manning at +750 — a historically fragile position, as the section above explains.
Who won the Heisman last year?
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, in a landslide — 643 first-place votes to Diego Pavia's 189 — after leading the Hoosiers to a perfect regular season, the Big Ten title, and ultimately the national championship. He was +6000 in the preseason.
When is the Heisman Trophy awarded?
Mid-December, in New York, after conference championship weekend — which is why November is when this market actually decides itself.
Why do quarterbacks dominate the Heisman?
Volume and visibility: QBs touch the ball every snap, post the gaudiest numbers, and get credited with team success. Sixteen of the last twenty winners were quarterbacks; the exceptions (Travis Hunter, DeVonta Smith, Derrick Henry) needed historic seasons.
Trade Heisman Markets on Swipe1
Award races like this are exactly what prediction markets price best — back your Heisman call with a swipe on Swipe1, and every trade earns airdrop points. Tracking the pro award chases? The MLB awards board, NBA hub, NFL page, and NHL award markets run the same playbook.