Golf Majors Odds: The Open at Royal Birkdale & 2027 Futures
Consensus odds compiled from sportsbooks and prediction markets. Last updated: July 24, 2026 — the Open Championship tees off tomorrow.
The final major of 2026 starts Thursday at Royal Birkdale, and the market's headline is a contradiction: Scottie Scheffler is the +700 favorite (~12.5% implied) to defend his Claret Jug — off the back of his first missed cut in nearly four years. That tension between reputation and form is where this week's prices get interesting. This page is the permanent golf majors hub: the current major leads it, and the 2027 futures boards roll in underneath as they form.
This Week: The Open Championship Odds (Royal Birkdale, July 16–19)
| Player | Odds | Implied probability | The one-line case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +700 | ~12.5% | Defending champion (won by 4 last year); longest major price he's carried since 2022 after the Scottish Open missed cut |
| Rory McIlroy | +850 | ~10.5% | Won his second straight Masters in April; T4 the last time the Open visited Birkdale |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1500 | ~6.3% | Grew up in Southport — Birkdale is literally his home course, and the money knows it |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +1500 | ~6.3% | Eight top-10s in his last 17 worldwide starts, third at last week's Scottish Open |
| Jon Rahm | +2000 | ~4.8% | |
| Xander Schauffele | +2700 | ~3.6% | Three major top-15s this year, but arrives off a missed cut |
| Ludvig Åberg | +3300 | ~2.9% | T4 at the PGA; elite off the tee |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +3600 | ~2.7% | LIV Andalucía winner in June, T3 at Augusta — the flat-line value the market keeps ignoring |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +6500 | ~1.5% | Opened +2800; has drifted on a genuine form crisis — hasn't made a major cut all year |
Only four players enter the week shorter than 20/1 — an unusually flat board for a major, which is the market saying the course, not a player, is the story. Birkdale (7,156 yards, par 70) plays firm and fast with 10–20 mph winds forecast: distance barely matters here, approach play and scrambling decide it. One more storyline the English crowd carries all week: no Englishman has lifted the Claret Jug on home soil since Tony Jacklin in 1969, and no UK player has won it anywhere since Nick Faldo in 1992.
we're fading the two names at the top. Scheffler at +700 asks you to pay peak-Scheffler prices for non-peak Scheffler form, and McIlroy's majors this year have faded after fast starts. Our call is Fitzpatrick at +1500 — the best current form on the board (led the Scottish Open deep into the weekend, second in the field on approach) meeting a course that rewards exactly his precision profile — with Hatton +3600 as the value play: two sneaky major top-10s this season, links pedigree, and home support without Fleetwood's suffocating hometown pressure. History's warning applies to us too: Open winners routinely come from the 10/1–30/1 band, not the favorite's slot. Graded Sunday evening.
The 2026 Majors So Far
A season with no repeat winner tells you how open golf is right now: Rory McIlroy took the Masters (back-to-back green jackets), Aaron Rai broke through at the PGA Championship, and Wyndham Clark claimed his second U.S. Open. Scheffler, the world No. 1, arrives at the last major of the year still chasing his first of the season — which is precisely why his +700 is a bet on regression to greatness rather than on 2026's evidence.
Masters 2027 & Next Year's Majors
The 2027 futures boards open in earnest the week after the Claret Jug is handed out — early Masters prices are already forming around the McIlroy repeat question and Scheffler's bounce-back narrative. This section carries the full four-major futures table from our post-Open refresh onward; the historical baseline to trade against while you wait: Masters favorites almost never win (two since 2005), and majors winners cluster in the +1000 to +3000 range.
What Is the Open Championship? (the 60-second version)
The Open — golf's oldest major, first played in 1860 — is the only one contested on links courses, the coastal, wind-exposed layouts where the ground game matters as much as the air game. The winner is crowned "Champion Golfer of the Year" and lifts the Claret Jug. Royal Birkdale, hosting for the 11th time, last staged it in 2017 (Jordan Spieth's escape-act win over Matt Kuchar). It completes the annual four-major set alongside the Masters, PGA Championship, and U.S. Open.
FAQ
Who is favored to win the 2026 Open Championship?
Scottie Scheffler at +700 as of July 15 — though he arrives off a missed cut, and only four players sit shorter than 20/1 on an unusually open board.
Do golf betting favorites usually win majors?
Rarely. Even elite players win single events at low rates; most major champions come from the short-to-mid price range (+1000 to +3000) rather than the favorite's slot — which is why top-10/top-20 markets are often the smarter structure than outrights.
When is the 2027 Masters?
April 2027 at Augusta National, as always — early futures form this summer, and this page's Masters board goes live with our post-Open refresh.
Trade Golf Markets on Swipe1
The Open tees off in hours — back your pick with a swipe on Swipe1's live markets, and every trade earns points toward the points-and-airdrop program. Individual-sport traders: the tennis board runs the same futures logic, and Formula 1 races this same weekend at Spa.