Golf Majors Odds: The Open Recap, FedEx Cup Playoffs & 2027 Masters Futures
Consensus odds compiled from sportsbooks and prediction markets. Last updated: August 18, 2026 — the FedEx Cup Playoffs are live.
The board's own thesis proved itself a month later than we could grade it: Ryan Fox won The Open at Royal Birkdale from outside our entire preview table, four birdies in his last six holes capped by a 12-foot winner on 18 to beat Cameron Young by one. Favorite Scottie Scheffler finished three back — the missed-cut form held all week. It's the New Zealander's first major, and the first Open win for a Kiwi in the modern era. This page is the permanent golf majors hub: the season's last major is graded below, the FedEx Cup Playoffs (live right now) come next, and the 2027 Masters futures board is open underneath.
The Open Recap: How Royal Birkdale Actually Played Out
| Player | Pre-tournament price | How it finished |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fox | not on our board | Won, −10 (270) — four birdies in his last six holes, beat Cameron Young by one |
| Cameron Young | not on our board | Runner-up, one back |
| Scottie Scheffler | +700 (favorite) | T-placed at −7, three back — the missed-cut form held |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1500 (home-course pick) | Also −7 — the Southport crowd got a leaderboard cameo, not the trophy |
| Rory McIlroy | +850 | Didn't factor on the weekend |
| Matt Fitzpatrick (our call) | +1500 | Didn't factor — our pick missed |
| Tyrrell Hatton (our value pick) | +3600 | Didn't factor — our value pick missed too |
Only four players had entered the week shorter than 20/1 — an unusually flat board, which we read as the course being the story rather than any one player. It turned out even flatter than that: the actual winner wasn't priced on our board at all. One more piece of history the result extends rather than breaks: no Englishman has lifted the Claret Jug on home soil since Tony Jacklin in 1969, and no UK player has won it anywhere since Nick Faldo in 1992.
Grading our call: we faded Scheffler and McIlroy and backed Fitzpatrick, with Hatton as the value play. Both missed — neither factored on Sunday, and the tournament went instead to a player who wasn't even on our nine-name board. This is the exact pattern the page's own historical note warns about, just more extreme than usual: Open winners routinely come from the 10/1–30/1 band, not the favorites we anchored on, and Fox was priced well outside even that band. The honest lesson isn't "pick differently" — it's that a market this flat (only four players inside 20/1) was already telling us the field was wide open, and we underweighted just how wide. Call graded: miss.
FedEx Cup Playoffs: Live Right Now
Scottie Scheffler answered the Open disappointment fast: he won the first playoff event, the FedEx St. Jude Championship, at TPC Southwind on August 16, cutting the field from 70 to 50. The BMW Championship is underway now (August 18–23) at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis; the top 30 after that head to the TOUR Championship at East Lake (August 27–30), where the winner takes the FedEx Cup and a $10 million payout, runner-up $5 million.
The 2026 Majors: Four Winners, Zero Repeats
Four majors, four different champions, and not one of them the market's pre-tournament favorite at the other three: Rory McIlroy took the Masters (back-to-back green jackets), Aaron Rai broke through at the PGA Championship, Wyndham Clark claimed his second U.S. Open, and now Ryan Fox closes the season at Royal Birkdale. Scheffler, the world No. 1 all year, finishes the major season still chasing his first win of it — the FedEx Cup Playoffs are where he's cashing in the form instead.
Masters 2027 & Next Year's Majors
| Player | Early odds | The one-line case |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +400 | Still golf's gold standard for consistency; the major-season near-miss doesn't move this line |
| Rory McIlroy | +550 | Chasing a third straight green jacket — a genuine three-peat bid |
| Jon Rahm | +1200 | |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1400 | |
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 | |
| Ludvig Åberg | +1800 | |
| Cameron Young | +1800 | Open runner-up momentum carries into the futures board |
The historical baseline to trade against: Masters favorites almost never win (two since 2005), and major winners cluster in the +1000 to +3000 range far more often than the top of the board — the same lesson Royal Birkdale just reinforced. This board will keep moving through the fall as the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the rest of the 2026 PGA Tour season settle form heading into Augusta.
What Is the Open Championship? (the 60-second version)
The Open — golf's oldest major, first played in 1860 — is the only one contested on links courses, the coastal, wind-exposed layouts where the ground game matters as much as the air game. The winner is crowned "Champion Golfer of the Year" and lifts the Claret Jug. Royal Birkdale has now hosted 12 times — Ryan Fox's 2026 win following Jordan Spieth's escape-act victory over Matt Kuchar there in 2017. It completes the annual four-major set alongside the Masters, PGA Championship, and U.S. Open.
FAQ
Who won the 2026 Open Championship?
Ryan Fox, at Royal Birkdale — his first major, and New Zealand's first Open win in the modern era. He wasn't among the market's top favorites; the +700 favorite, Scottie Scheffler, finished three back.
Do golf betting favorites usually win majors?
Rarely. Even elite players win single events at low rates; most major champions come from the short-to-mid price range (+1000 to +3000) rather than the favorite's slot — which is why top-10/top-20 markets are often the smarter structure than outrights.
When is the 2027 Masters, and who's favored?
April 2027 at Augusta National, as always. Early futures have Scottie Scheffler the +400 favorite, with Rory McIlroy — chasing a third straight green jacket — close behind at +550.
Trade Golf Markets on Swipe1
The BMW Championship is live and the 2027 Masters board is open — back your pick with a swipe on Swipe1's live markets, and every trade earns points toward the points-and-airdrop program. Individual-sport traders: the tennis board runs the same futures logic, and Formula 1 restarts from its summer break this same week.